Job Market Paper
"Information Spread through Social Media and Engagement in Crime:
Evidence from a National Wave of Car Thefts"
This paper studies a large negative externality of social media. I leverage the unanticipated timing of a viral social media trend that spread information on how to steal particular models of Kia and Hyundai cars (KH cars) to show that exposure to criminal skill training through online videos led to a large net increase in car thefts. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I show that KH car thefts increased by over 600 percent relative to non-KH cars in the 15 months following the information shock. Additionally, cities that are more socially connected to Milwaukee, the epicenter of the information shock, experienced 55 percent more KH thefts due to amplified exposure through social networks. Highly-connected cities also experienced significantly more motor vehicle theft offenses and arrests, with no changes in the trends of other types of crime. These findings suggest that social media accelerated the spread of criminal skills, leading to a large increase in car thefts, immediate victim damages and criminal justice expenses, and potential long-term costs from perpetrator labor market scarring.
Working Papers
"Mass Layoffs and the Dynamics of Local Crime Rates"
I study the effect of mass layoffs in the manufacturing sector on local labor market conditions and crime rates using firm-level administrative data on workers applying for Trade Adjustment Assistance from 1990 to 2010. I find that, on average, a mass layoff event that constitutes 1% or more of a county’s labor force causes a persistent decline in employment up to 5 years after the layoff. The initial decline in employment is driven evenly by a temporary decline in the employment rate and a decline in labor force participation, but persists due to a lasting decline in labor force participation. While per capita government transfer payments increase, the decline in per capita wages leads to a persistent decline in per capita income as well. The decline in economic conditions is associated with, on average, an increase in the violent crime rate of 6.04% and property crime rate of 6.10%, leading to a persistent increase in the total crime rate of 6.02%. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the increase in the violent crime rate can be completely attributed to counties experiencing layoffs in relatively low wage manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, while the number of crimes per police officer increases, the proportion of crimes cleared by police does not decline, suggesting that changes in police deterrence as a result of resource constraints are not responsible for the persistent increase in crime.
Works in Progress
"The Employment Effects of Ban-the-Box Policies: Testing the Implication of a Statistical Discrimination Model" (joint with Andrea Moro)